tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2181153683994775767.post1788944784795845528..comments2017-02-20T03:55:38.393-05:00Comments on The Core Mechanic: The Statistics of 4E Skill ChallengesJonathan Jacobsnoreply@blogger.comBlogger9125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2181153683994775767.post-45745455723046368112009-01-09T16:48:00.000-05:002009-01-09T16:48:00.000-05:00I've fixed the problem (dropping the first two row...I've fixed the problem (dropping the first two rows, becuase the minimum skill challenge is three successes if you allow for 3 failures). I also found out that there was a bug in the calculations... so ...<BR/><BR/>the table is all new and updated. Should be correct now.Jonathanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06133232985480734844noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2181153683994775767.post-89973919532411713442009-01-09T14:25:00.000-05:002009-01-09T14:25:00.000-05:00I came up with my own DCs, which I think are good ...I came up with my own DCs, which I think are good for individual checks. Closer to the new DCs plus 5 than the old DCs without the additional 5. I hadn't considered the new DCs went along with the 3 failures, which I understood fixed higher complexities being easier and I found was a lot easier to play out - players didn't need to know the complexity going in to determine how many failures they had left, and thus how bold or cautious they needed to be.<BR/><BR/>I took the highest skill modifier for each skill of my party, the average of was +12.5 at 7th Level. My Moderate DC for that level was 19, so let's say they needed a 6 die roll. Looking at your table, that's cool for Complexity 1, 2 and even 3. It comes off the rails after that. The new DCs Moderate for that level is 14, so let's say they needed a 2 die roll. Looking at your table, that's not a challenge.<BR/><BR/>Not sure which direction to go in now.Anonymous Jimnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2181153683994775767.post-12440015204256589642009-01-09T13:37:00.000-05:002009-01-09T13:37:00.000-05:00@Anonymous : Yes it is, however they also lowered ...@Anonymous : Yes it is, however they also lowered all the DC's needed to count as successes (Easy, Moderate, Hard) - this is why some people were confused when they lowered the DC's but the S.C.s still seemed to be just as hard. You fail faster - but probably with about the same rate of failure as compared to the old system with the higher DCs. I haven't honestly looked analytically at this; but this is what my gut expects to the case.Jonathanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06133232985480734844noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2181153683994775767.post-16167952215771603082009-01-09T13:28:00.000-05:002009-01-09T13:28:00.000-05:00Is this worse than the original system of failures...Is this worse than the original system of failures equal to half the numbers of successes?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2181153683994775767.post-19615985097915225712009-01-08T12:10:00.000-05:002009-01-08T12:10:00.000-05:00I just realized that there is a a flaw in my stati...I just realized that there is a a flaw in my statistical analysis of this - the special cases where the number of successes needed are less than the number of failures (1 or 2) successes should use a different formula that does not include the 2nd or 3rd rolls. Once I get around to fixing this this, I'll update the table. So, for now, ignore the first two rows of the table, the math is wrong; but the table is correct for S.C. that need 3 or more successes. Ahhh silly me...Jonathanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06133232985480734844noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2181153683994775767.post-20792381677229699962008-12-22T22:07:00.000-05:002008-12-22T22:07:00.000-05:00Hey Scott, thanks for stopping by! I'm looking for...Hey Scott, thanks for stopping by! I'm looking forward to your take on the skill challenges - should be good.Jonathanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06133232985480734844noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2181153683994775767.post-90545826667990073912008-12-22T21:59:00.000-05:002008-12-22T21:59:00.000-05:00Yes... I think one of the mistakes GMs make with s...Yes... I think one of the mistakes GMs make with skill challenges is assuming that the PCs are meant to win them. This isn't necessarily the case. Failing a skill challenge isn't supposed to roadblock the game, it's supposed to introduce complications and obstacles for the PCs to deal with.<BR/><BR/>Another thing I think people miss is that bonuses are meant to be reasonably easy to come by, either mechanically (use of skill X gives a +Y bonus to the next use of skill Z) or through "circumstance bonuses" for good roleplaying and clever ideas. The bonuses make it much easier to succeed at the challenge, and therefore reward said good roleplaying and clever ideas.<BR/><BR/>I suspect I'll be posting about skill challenges soon; I have some other thoughts on them.Scotthttp://abutterflydreaming.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2181153683994775767.post-42112062545349877862008-12-22T12:04:00.000-05:002008-12-22T12:04:00.000-05:00yeah, basically. So.. for example .. if you had a ...yeah, basically. <BR/><BR/>So.. for example .. if you had a Complexity 2 skill challenge with moderate difficulty (you need to roll a 10 or higher).. thats 6 successes before 3 failures with a 55% chance of success for each roll.. <BR/><BR/>but overall.. there's only a 22% chance of success for the whole Skill Challenge.Jonathanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06133232985480734844noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2181153683994775767.post-48498678900601751832008-12-22T11:54:00.000-05:002008-12-22T11:54:00.000-05:00Wait, so just to make sure I am reading your table...Wait, so just to make sure I am reading your table properly - <BR/><BR/>Each cell effectively represents, given the average roll needed to meet or beat the average DC of the skill checks involved (columns), the likelihood of beating a skill challenge requiring a given number of successes (rows)?<BR/><BR/>thanks for doing this. yay stats!Aoinoreply@blogger.com